Selling times drop by 38.9% from previous quarter
Annual house price inflation now less than 0.5%
The annual house price appreciation in Glasgow and west of Scotland has remained positive for six consecutive quarters, the longest growth stretch since 2008.
According to data based on GSPC sales, annual house price inflation in the west is now less than half of one per cent, meaning house prices have essentially stalled.
The average length of time properties remain on the market has also dramatically decreased in Q2, with selling time now sitting at 69 days compared to 113 days in Q1, a fall of 38.9%. This is the shortest average selling time since 2008 Q2.
Professor Gwilym Pryce from Sheffield University, who analysed the GSPC’s sales data, said: “It is traditional for selling times to drop during the second quarter but even so, this represents a very large fall indeed; the largest quarterly fall, in fact, for 14 years.
“The last time selling times fell by more than 38% in a single quarter was in 2001 when they decreased from 60 days in Q1 to 36 days in Q2, a fall of 40%.
“Falling selling times can often be an indicator that the market is heating up. However, it is not necessarily a predictor of forthcoming prices. In 2013, for example, Q2 selling times dropped by 32.3% but price growth turned negative in the following quarter.”
There is also some variation between Glasgow city and the surrounding areas. Annual house price inflation in Glasgow for Q2 looks quite strong at 3.4% compared with a fall of 1.5% in surrounding areas from this time last year.
Austin Lafferty, director of the GSPC, said: “Overall, Q2 shows signs of the property market beginning to stabilise, with house price inflation converging towards zero. The question is whether or not this slowdown will continue, perhaps even pushing price growth into reverse for Glasgow and the west in subsequent quarters.
“The Q2 2015 GSPC results confirm the rather tentative nature of house price recovery we have witnessed in the west of Scotland since the financial crisis. It is an increasingly familiar story of positive recovery being tempered by market fragility.”