You may have noticed that the GSPC blog has been unusually quiet in the last few weeks.
That was a deliberate choice (not laziness, I promise) because almost any commentary on the market could have been rendered irrelevant by the outcome of the independence referendum.
Now that we all know the result, there is a greater degree of certainty about the immediate prospects for the market. And generally, they look petty good.
In the next few days, a significant number of sales that were awaiting the outcome of the vote will go ahead as planned. There is likely to be a ripple effect as sellers who were waiting for buyers to conclude missives can themselves submit offers or conclude missives on offers that have already been accepted.
In the next few weeks, sellers who had put their plans on hold until the result was known will put their homes on the market. So, an immediate surge in sales is likely to be followed by a rise in the number of properties coming on to the market.
Moreover, market activity is likely to be sustained longer in to the winter than is normally the case. Why?
There is usually a significant increase in new instructions in the period immediately after the schools return. Given the strong performance of the market in the months leading up to the holiday period, you might have expected that seasonal trend to be even more marked this year.
In fact, new instructions and sales were broadly in line with activity last year and there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that uncertainty around the outcome of the referendum was one reason why the increase in activity seen earlier in the year was not replicated this autumn.
With that issue resolved, sellers and buyers who might have entered the market in last August or early September may decide to do so now. If that is the case (I’ll report back on this when hard data starts coming in), the market is likely to remain more buoyant in the late autumn than is usually the case as both sellers and buyers make up for lost time.
So, if you are thinking of selling and wondering whether you have left it too late this year – the answer is there is still time and you will probably be in good company.