News from the Registers of Scotland of a 26% leap in home sales compared to a year earlier hit the headlines yesterday. Here’s advance notice that the jump in sales for the next quarter is likely to be even higher.
How do I know? Because SPC Scotland, the body that represents all solicitors property centres in Scotland, recently reported that sales through solicitors over the same period had risen by 36%. You can see that report here. That itself was better than the 29% increase reported for the previous quarter – a figure which is remarkably similar to the recent growth recorded by Registers of Scotland.
In fact, data from individual SPC’s and from SPC Scotland are a very good predictor of what subsequent reports from the Registers of Scotland will say. That’s because SPC’s tend to record a sale when an offer is accepted while Registers of Scotland record the same transaction at the date of entry/completion, normally some weeks later. So, what SPC’s report today as a sale will be recorded as a change of ownership by the Registers some time later.
On that basis, the next quarterly report from the Registers of Scotland (due out in May) is likely to report sales rising by around a third. You heard it here first.
Finally, just a reminder that you can see monthly transactions as recorded by the Registers of Scotland from April 2003 to the present day on the ‘market data’ page of this blog or use this link.